pig flu

We are 41 days into what may be one of the most important outbreaks of the past 43 days.

The World Health Organization posted its first update on the swine flu situation last Friday. In that first update, WHO discussed the history of Mexican surveillance of an influenza-like illness (ILI) which was detected in Mexico City--currently my favorite place in the world. And since then--50,000 news stories, millions of surgical mask purchases, and 91 confirmed cases on American soil, later--swine flu has become the hottest thing going. Oh swine flu. It's all the rage, yet it's not. As of today, WHO reports 148 confirmed cases globally, including 8 deaths, all in the US (1) and Mexico (7). The loss of human life, particularly among young people, is tragic. The American death was a Mexican toddler in Texas. But I don't recall hearing anything on the news two weeks ago when twice as many children died of influenza in the US--yes, that would be 2. And that same week, confirmed cases of "seasonal" influenza in the US (151) topped the global rate of swine flu over the past month (148), according to the CDC. And April is the tail end of the American flu season. Since the final months of 2008, there have been more than 25,000 confirmed cases of influenza and 55 pediatric deaths resulting from the flu in the United States. Standard procedure for a year in between the Atlantic, Pacific, Canada, and Mexico--maybe a little better, actually.

So why are we freaking out about swine flu? Why are we sanitizing schools and wearing pointless surgical masks? Humans get this thing all the time. And this appears, so far, to be no more aggressive than regular old flu. The CDC's major clinical recommendations have really been no more than reissues of those related to seasonal flu: young children and pregnant women are at high risk. And pig flu appears to be just about as responsive to antiviral drugs as regular flu. On the other hand, the following remark is the most cause for special concern I've seen so far, from CDC or anyone else qualified to be saying something about it: "The more recent illnesses and the reported death suggest that a pattern of more severe illness associated with this virus may be emerging in the U.S. Most people will not have immunity to this new virus and, as it continues to spread, more cases, more hospitalizations and more deaths are expected in the coming days and weeks." Ok, guys. I get it.

Call me an optimistic cynic. I have a feeling this is not going to be the apocalyptic finale we've been waiting for. But I actually don't know that much. So I'm going to pay close attention to this over the next week, and try to report back as often as I can. Most world issues are treated like sporting events (elections, wars, epidemics), so I'm hoping that a blackberry application that one-clicks me to the epidemiology of pig flu is ready in the next couple of days. But until then, I'll do my best to stay on top of it. And so will CDC, I hope: www.cdc.gov/swineflu/.

[[[SIDE-NOTE: I have to say my #1 favorite national response to swine flu has got to be Egypt. They have capitalized on the moment and ordered the slaughter of all pigs in the country. Given that it's a Muslim country, and the only folks with pigs are Christians, some might suggest this amounts to religious persecution based on inflated public health threats. How exciting! Here we're blaming Mexicans and there they're blaming gentiles. Gays, Jews, and drug users, you have the week off.]]]

Three paths ahead: 1. I get vindicated and people stay healthy while this whole thing blows over. 2. I get sick and believe it because the only thing that really matters in my narrow personal experience. 3. I get converted by the hype and fill my bathtub with hand sanitizer, and set CNN on the sink. Until then, however, I think I'll stand by the words of two great Detroit philosophers: